Certain MOSFETs have remained in a short condition up to now
According to the Commodity IQ report from Supplyframe, the chip supply and demand balance is normalizing, but it is expected that a shortage in analog ICs, microcontrollers, and discrete ICs, especially power MOSFETs will continue in 2023.
In fact, since the outbreak of the pandemic, MOSFET has been in short supply. The lead time for MOSFETs remains high, with a maximum wait of 65 weeks (about 15 months) in 2023.
The reasons behind the shortage of electronic components are complex. Especially in a period of macroeconomic uncertainty. It is becoming increasingly challenging to forecast demand amid mixed end-market signals and any other disruptions that may arise.
The MOSFET market scale grows steadily, boosted by multiple driving forces
On the demand side, MOSFET, as a basic electronic component, is in broad use and development in consumer electronics, industry, automobiles, communications, etc.
According to Omdia's statistics, the global MOSFET market size reached 8.556 billion US dollars in 2020 and is expected to maintain a stable growth trend. It is estimated that the global MOSFTs market size may grow to US$8.824 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 0.62% from 2020 to 2025.
In recent years, with the awareness of protecting the environment and the development of the new energy industry, the power electronics market has gradually become one of the main fields of MOSFETs, providing new opportunities for the MOSFET.
For instance, the demand for "fast charging" in charging stations provides strong support for the demand for MOSFETs. What’s more, the surge in the number of base stations and the increase in the value of power semiconductor unit prices has opened up incremental space for MOSFETs in the 5G field.
Meanwhile, in the automotive field, the demand for iterative upgrades and electrification has given rise to a large demand for MOSFET. Especially for the development of automobile intelligence, ADAS, safety, infotainment, and other relevant functions, MOSFETs are needed. According to the data from automotive chip manufacturers, It is expected that the average number of MOSFETs per vehicle in mid-to-high-end models will increase to 400 soon.
Market differentiation between low and high-voltage MOSFETs: the former is declining while the latter remains strong
On the supply side, the shortage of high-voltage MOSFET is expected to continue even though the shortage of low-voltage MOSFET has eased.
The following chart (data sourced from Future Electronics) shows that in terms of low-voltage MOSFET, the lead time of some products is shortening, such as those produced by three suppliers Diodes, MCC, and ST. Low-voltage MOSFETs tend to have shorter lead times. However, for high-voltage MOSFETs, the lead time of core suppliers remained stable, mostly between 40 and 50 weeks, which is longer compared to the average lead time for low-voltage MOSFETs.
For the price, low-voltage MOSFET remained stable except for ON Semiconductor's products for which price has an upward trend. high-voltage MOSFETs prices remained high, and even Microchip and ON Semiconductor's product prices are on the rise.
The lead time and price trends for high-voltage and low-voltage MOSFET are slightly different, which is associated with the structural differentiation of downstream demand. Low-voltage MOSFETs are widely used in consumer electronics, while medium and high-voltage MOSFETs are used in the sectors such as industry, communications, and electric vehicles with a trend of increasing technical requirements and product demand. For the current market, the demand for consumption and some industries has become weak, while the demand for new energy such as automobiles and photovoltaics remains strong. Therefore, the demand for low and high-voltage MOSFETs is also inconsistent.
The low and high-voltage MOSFET market may further differentiate in the future. Low and medium MOSFET technology is relatively mature, and the market entry threshold is low. With the rapid development of the terminal market, the increasing demand will continue to drive more manufacturers to enter the segment of low and medium-voltage MOSFETs. This competitive situation began and ultimately lead to price competition and squeezed profit margins.
In contrast, the high-voltage MOSFET market is expected to continue to grow. According to Omdia statistics, the market size of global/Chinese high-voltage super-junction MOSFET products in 2020 reached 9.4/420 million US dollars, and to be reaching 1 billion/440 million US dollars in 2024. The compound annual growth rate is between 1.56% to 1.7 % During 2021-2024 years. Meanwhile, the global/China low-voltage MOSFET product sales will be 5.24/2.41 billion US dollars in 2020 and it is expected to shrink to 4.92/2.12 billion US dollars in 2024 and compound annual growth rate will be between -1.56% to-3.15% during 2020-2024years.
Nowadays, international manufacturers are adjusting their product layouts to capitalize on the growth potential of high-specification MOSFETs
MOSFETs are divided into several major categories, including trench power MOSFETs, shielded gate power MOSFETs, and super junction power MOSFETs, according to the product features.
High-performance products like high-voltage super-junction MOSFETs are becoming more important with the increasing market share. International semiconductor manufacturers are optimistic about the future development of high-specification power MOSFETs, and they have all started product upgrades or structural adjustments which will enable them to occupy the market with good prices and growth.
Integrated design and manufacturing giants such as Infineon, ON Semiconductor, Rohm, and STMicroelectronics will continue to increase the number of products and application fields of existing Silicon-based power MOSFETs and SiC/GaN-based power MOSFETs, which is expected to support the growth of high-voltage power MOSFET prices and further drive market demand and output value for high-voltage power MOSFETs.
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